According to the Gregorian calendar, February 12 is New Year's Eve in China, the year of the Horse ends and the magnificent year of the Dragon begins. This time before the new year, when nearly half of the population in China moves, is also a very stressful period for export companies.

At the beginning of December, the Houthis, a Yemeni separatist group, announced that they would target commercial ships calling at Israel using the passage between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, which narrows to 10 km in width. After major international shipowner companies such as Maersk, MSC, and Cosco announced that their ships were targeted, they declared that the Red Sea crossing was risky in terms of property and life safety, and announced that they would use Hope Horn.

As of now, the Nhava Sheva arrival of a container loaded from Istanbul Ambarli port with Hapag Loyd on 25 December 2023 appears to be 10 March 2024. A maritime carrier TIO may explain to its customers by saying, "These deviations are quite normal during a such crisis period." You are an importer, your transporter gives you information. “As of now, the travel time for Ambarli Delhi loading is between 45-75 days,” he says. Satan is in torment; So what will be the travel time if the crisis ends? 20 days. The solution that came to my mind is currently on everyone's mind except Chinese exporters. “Let's wait a little while, this crisis will pass.” Even if the crisis continues for another 30 days, it is better today than if I didn't know it would go away in 76 days.

The shipowner, whose closest route has been cut off, cannot find an answer to the question of whether he should accept the extra expense and travel of 30-40 days for a route that I can travel in 1 day when the crisis is over.

Recently, a container loaded from Ambarlı to Dalian, China, with Zim line, turned its nose to the Korean port of Pusan for transshipment without waiting for the extreme congestion in the Singapore port, but the calculations at home did not suit the market and due to the congestion in Pusan, the ship changed its route back to Singapore. Freight forwarders know, Pusan; It is located very close to China's Dalian port. Understanding why the ship returned to Singapore instead of calling Dalian or any other closer Chinese port is half the story. Ships are searching ports with tens of thousands of containers on their backs to discharge, and Chinese exporters are having difficulty finding ships to ship their goods. Chinese exporters who want to export goods before the migration of tribes are worried.

There is also side income; Egypt obtains a significant portion of its country's income from the Suez Canal passage. The Asia-Mediterranean-Europe line is the largest traffic that feeds this revenue. And unfortunately, things are not going well for Egypt.

However, the USA, whose route does not pass through the Red Sea in any way, and the UK, whose journey time is up to fifteen percent longer even if it goes around the Cape of Good Hope, decide to solve the problem with military methods.

China certainly received a surprise New Year's gift, but I think we will see who wins the lottery by February 20th.